- Retail sector is 67% bullish on the pair
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to sell
- Canadian data at 12:30 GMT
During the first half of Friday's trading the GBP/USD pair continued to struggle with the resistance located at the 1.2740 mark. Although, after the previous almost half a month long decline some trading sideways or upwards is considered normal.
The Greenback weakened against the British Pound, following the United Kingdom Retail Sales release on Thursday at 08:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 20 pips, or 0.16%.
The Office for National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data that came better-than-expected at 0.7% with the forecasted of 0.2%. The actual data is good for the currency because there come more opportunities for the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
The Office for National Statistics senior statistician, Rhian Murphy said: "Many consumers stayed away from some high street stores in July, but online sales were very strong, supported by several retailers launching promotions. Food sales remained robust as people continued to enjoy the World Cup and the sunshine."
Canadian data at 12:30
Friday's economic calendar has only one notable data release on it. Although, it is a Canadian one that is only going to influence the Canadian Dollar pairs. Namely, the Canadian CPI data will be released at 12:30 GMT.
The event will be covered by the Dukascopy analysts on the bank's live webinar platform. The cover will begin at 12:00 GMT. This time it is early, as traders will be shown, how to prepare for a data release.
GBP/USD poised for gains
Thursday's trading session was very calm for the GBP/USD exchange rate. It was previously expected that a breakout from the 55-hour SMA would be followed by a surge, as this line has been a strong resistance level for three weeks now. This did not happen, as bulls were unable to surpass the monthly S2 and the 100-hour SMA at 1.2750.Some upside potential is still apparent in the market with the daily high likely to be located near the senior channel, the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.2840. This trading session might likewise be with low volatility due to lack of fundamental affecting the rate.
In general, the current appreciation is expected to continue next week as well, especially if taking into account that the Pound reached a one-year low against the Greenback on Wednesday.
Hourly Chart
Once more the daily chart shows that the supposed surges of the GBP/USD are actually just short lived pauses in the borders of a large scale descending pattern. The currency exchange rate's decline is highly likely going to find short term support in the various monthly and weekly pivot point levels.
Daily chart
The Swiss trader sentiment has not changed since yesterday, as 68% of their open positions remain long.
However, additional long positions are unlikely going to be open. Retail traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange have set up 59% of all of their pending trade orders to sell.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders remain largely bullish, as 69% of open positions are long at the brokerage. In the meantime, traders at SAXO Bank are 64% long on the GBP/USD pair.
It can be deducted from all of the sentiment information that not only the short term traders, but also long term positions are long. The market participants might be expecting a surge after the recent decline. However, during the recent trading sessions all of the open long positions have created only losses.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility