- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bullish (+1%)
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are at equilibrium
- Upcoming fundamental events: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Quarles to speak
The combined resistance of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs should limit gains above 1.17 during the following trading sessions.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Retail Sales data release. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.12%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.7088 area.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
This trading session is allocated to semi-important fundamental releases from the United States, such as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1230GMT. In addition, the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles will deliver opening remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable at 1300GMT.
EUR/USD could reverse gains
By the time of this analysis, bulls have managed to push the rate close to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs; thus is expected that these lines are reached during the following hours.
Further advance is unlikely, given that the monthly PP at 1.1680 is likewise strengthened by the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. This resistance cluster should increase downside risks and thus send the Euro lower towards 1.16. Technical indicators support this scenario.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The general tendency in the long term should be northwards. In terms of resistance, it is likely that the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 provide a strong barrier in July.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 60% of open positions being long for today (+1%). This sentiment has been fluctuating around the 60% mark for a couple of weeks now, demonstrating that traders are still expecting the Euro to strengthen against the Greenback in the medium and long term.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 54% bullish and the US Dollar is 60% bearish.
OANDA traders are gradually becoming more bullish with 55% of open positions being long in this session. Saxo Bank clients have also returned in the bullish territory with 52% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility