While on the higher time-frames the Euro is bullish, after bottoming out in April, on the hourly chart there is a strong case in favour of a near-term decline. During the next several days every new high is likely to be lower than the previous maximum. Right now the ceiling at is 1.0519, where the daily R2 merges with the
The British Pound is likely to continue appreciating relative to the Japanese Yen. Right now GBP/JPY is trading between two well-defined parallel trend-lines, and there are no major resistances ahead. The nearest such historically important level is as far as 215.86, where the currency pair made a U-turn back in July of 2008. Nevertheless, we expect a correctional sell-off to
It seems that the bearish scenario for the AUD/JPY currency pair is highly unlikely at the moment. First, the pair has been generally outperforming in the past three months, while trading temporarily sideways since mid-May. Moreover, right now a substantial support is provided by the bunch of simple moving averages (55, 100 and 200-period), which are located unusually close to
A decline of the British Pound against the Australian Dollar is likely to strengthen, as soon the GBP/AUD pair violates one of the nearest supports represented by the weekly pivot point at 2.0325. If this is the case, the cross will be expected to reach the pattern's lower trend-line in the short-term, which in turn is placed at 2.0264. At
Just as in USD/ZAR, the near-term outlook for the Dollar in USD/CHF is also positive. A combination of the Jun 18 low with the monthly S1 and down-trend should be enough to trigger a recovery. However, the gains are expected to be capped by a dense supply zone between 0.9350 and 0.9300, created by the upper edge of the pattern,
In the short run the US Dollar is likely to be bullish, since at the moment USD/ZAR is fluctuating just above the lower boundary of the channel. However, the overall outlook on the hourly chart is bearish, and the rebound should be stopped by a cluster of resistances at 12.34, where the daily R2 merges with the 200-hour SMA and
The Aussie has been underperforming relative to the Franc for quite some time now, and so far there are no signs this tendency is going to end soon. There is a high chance of a rally from 0.6934 (2008 low), but the gains are expected to be limited by 0.80, namely by the upper trend-line of the bearish channel. However,
USD/TRY is currently approaching the apex of the descending triangle pattern, from which a break-out is expected to take place. Theoretically, the pair still has time to decide on the direction of the break-out until the beginning of the next week; however, a close below the 100-period SMA would imply a downward development of the Dollar against the Turkish Lira.
After a period of growth, the US Dollar decided to resume falling against the Russian currency, therefore forming a bearish channel on the hourly chart. Despite that, several factors are assuming that the Greenback will undergo an upside correction phase in the next few days. Among them, one-hour technical indicators are giving signals to buy the Dollar versus the Rouble.
The initial guess (on Jun 16) that EUR/GBP is forming a bearish channel, turned out to be incorrect. Judging by the latest developments the pair is trading within the boundaries of the falling wedge, which implies a start of a strong rally in the near future, being that we are close to the apex of the figure. Once the upper
GBP/CAD continues to trade between two upward-sloping parallel trend-lines, and since the last update (Jun 17) has managed to confirm importance of both of them. The outlook is still bullish, and we expect a rebound from 1.9385. However, the rate is approaching resistance at 1.9559, represented by the Feb high, and for now this level represents the major downside risk.
Since June 5 the Dollar/Krona cross has been driven by the 55-period SMA, which has a distinct downward trend at the moment. Moreover, this line has recently crossed the less volatile 200-period SMA, therefore underlying the pair's bearish intentions. The base scenario for the Dollar includes depreciation down to lower edge of the pattern around 7.90. However, the pair must
The GBP/NZD currency pair is mainly expected to continue appreciating. However, in the short-term a correction is highly likely, considering that the pair has just recently touched the upper trend-line of the pattern. At the same time, the present rising wedge pattern implies a narrowing trading range, which will make it difficult for the Sterling to show volatile movements. As
Similarly to what is happening with the other Euro-crosses, EUR/CHF also appears to be undergoing a bullish correction following a massive decline that transpired earlier this year. But in the near term there is a good chance of a decline to 1.0330 (lower trend-line of the channel), before the rate is able to resume the bullish correction. Accordingly, the support
The bullish pattern is rather a part of an upward correction following the Dec-Apr sell-off, but we can still expect an up-leg to 1.5550, namely to the Feb high. During the next several days or perhaps even weeks EUR/SGD is likely to decline to the lower edge of the pattern, but around 1.49 the Euro should bottom out and then
EUR/JPY will reach the lower boundary of the bullish pattern as soon as the next week. However, at first the Euro has to depreciate below the monthly R2, weekly PP and 55-period SMA at 139.36. The next support zone is located at 138 (monthly R1, 100-period SMA and weekly S1), but these levels are going to merge with the pattern's
Currently, there is a great opportunity for the EUR/CAD currency pair to rally, especially considering the pair's location near the lower trend-line of the bullish pattern. However, for the positive trend to be established, the common currency is required to escape the vicinity of many technical levels in the 1.38-1.39 area. Two most important resistances are the weekly PP and
Although on the hourly chart it may seem that the Euro is likely to keep underperforming, on the longer-term time-frame the picture is bullish. Accordingly, the downside potential of EUR/PLN is likely to be limited by the major up-trend at 4.1230, but a reversal may occur before a test of this level, namely in the vicinity of the recent low
Today's outlook on the Sterling is bullish. GBP/CAD is expected to bounce off the lower boundary of the channel and rise towards 1.94. There the rate should encounter strong resistance, implied by the upper trend-line and the weekly R2 level. The downside risks are represented by supply around 1.93, where the weekly R1 merges with the Jun 16 high, but
For a fifth consecutive day the US Dollar is trying to pierce through the major resistance area and commence an eventual rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The nearest supply is reinforced by the 100 and 55-period SMAs, as well as the weekly pivot point just below 1.35. An ability to consolidate above them will refocus attention
The Sterling/Dollar pair formed a rising wedge pattern during the past trading week. The pattern implies a narrowing trading range, making it difficult for the Pound to continue developing inside the boundaries of the wedge. The exchange rate is still located around the upper edge, even though there were attempts to lose value on June 16. However, the 55-hour SMA
EUR/GBP failed to overcome resistance at 0.7389, and since Jun 9 the currency pair has been in a down-trend. Now, as the long-run moving average is out of the way, the Euro could be aiming for 0.7056, namely for the May low. As for the current situation, the near-term risks are also heavily skewed to the downside, being that the
As NZD/USD was unable to rise past 0.7745, the currency pair is now forming a bearish channel. Accordingly, the overall outlook is negative. However, in the short run there is an increased possibility of a rally, considering that the exchange rate is fluctuating just above the lower boundary of the pattern. The potential gains should be limited by the falling
The Greenback came under intense bearish pressure in the beginning of June, when the USD/SEK pair neared the upper boundary of the channel down pattern. Since then the US Dollar has been constantly losing value and has just recently penetrated the monthly S1. This event increases the risk of bears pushing the pair even lower. Moreover, 55-period SMA has just