USD/CHF 4H Chart: Rising Wedge

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CHF has been moving within an ascending wedge pattern since August 18, and is currently on its way down to the bottom trend-line at 0.9670. The pair reached two-month lows on August 17, dipping to the 0.9538 mark; and as the pattern implies a trend reversal, it could be testing the same level over the upcoming weeks. In case the pair remains within the bounds of the wedge for now, it will bounce from the 0.9668 line and rally towards the upper trend-line at 0.9712, encountering intermediate resistance at 0.9696/0.9699 where the 100-period SMA and upper Bollinger Band cluster lies. The rate is currently testing the weekly triangle bottom trend-line as well, which means that a reversal is indeed likely. While daily technical indicators give out SELL signals to traders, the hourly and 4 hour gauges show a bullish trend coming up. In case a breakout of the upper trend-line does take place, the pair will rally all the way up to the 200-period SMA, experiencing a hitch at 0.9744 with weekly R3. A reversal scenario, however, is more likely, as downward pressure on the pair is put by an extremely positive trader sentiment (72% of long positions outstanding) on the currency, causing it to become overbought.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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