USD/TRY 4H Chart: Rising Wedge

Outlook for the Dollar against the Turkish Lira is rapidly changing from moderately positive to strongly negative. Last week the pair has penetrated the rising wedge's lower boundary and, along with that, the 200-period SMA at 2.9776. Indeed, the pattern had implied a downward confirmation from the very beginning. Now the focus is turning to the next formidable support at 2.9038/2.8967, which is represented by the Dec 29 low, weekly S2 and monthly S1. On the other hand, there are several quite encouraging signals for the Buck. First and foremost, USD/TRY seems to remain strongly oversold, as 71% of all positions are short, while weekly technical indicators are now bullish.