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The pattern started on the 21st of March, 2012, when the pair started depreciating from 11.44; currently it is trading at the weekly pivot (PP) at 128.28; gap between the pattern's support and resistance narrows by 450 pips in 100-bar period . Trading volume seems to be U shaped (relatively higher in the beginning and the end of the pattern). Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 1M horizon suggesting it should continue following pattern's, upward sloping, trend. Long traders could focus on the 20-day SMA at128.61, monthly pivot (PP)/weekly pivot (R1) at 120.64/65, Bollinger band at 131.64, weekly pivot (R2) at 132.32, monthly pivot (R1)/26 month high at 133.78/81, weekly pivot (R3) and pattern's resistance/monthly pivot (R2) at 136.22/94.
Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair on 1D horizon suggesting that pattern's support might be tested some time soon again. Short traders could focus on the monthly pivot (S1)/pattern's support/100-day SMA at 127.49/44, weekly pivot (S1) at 126.55, Bollinger band at 125.57 and monthly pivot (S2)/weekly pivot (S2) at 124.35/14.
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on the pairs development in the near future are ECB minimum bid rate announcement on the 4th of July and Japans current account and monetary policy statement announcements on the 9th of July.
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