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The pattern started on the 15th of November, 2013, when the pair dipped to 200-day SMA at 1.5829; currently it is trading at the Fibonacci retracement (23.6% of 2nd of January, 2013, to 12th of March, 2012, move)/monthly pivot (S1) at 1.5191. Trading volume seems to be increasing in the length of the pattern. The Stochastic indicator, which is constructed to predict major turning point, sends buy signal in 1D horizon. In addition, current market sentiment is mildly (59%) bullish. All in all, it seems we might see a bullish correction some time soon. Long traders could focus on the weekly pivot (PP) at 1.5239, 1.5321/427 area (weekly pivot (R1), 100-day SMA, monthly pivot (PP), 20-day SMA, Fibonacci (38.2%), pattern's resistance and weekly pivot (R2)), weekly pivot (R3) at 1.5548 and Fibonacci (50%) at 1.5651.
Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair on 1W horizon suggesting it should continue moving towards the pattern's support. Short traders could focus on the Bollinger band/weekly pivot (S1) at 1.5115/94, weekly pivot (S2) at 1.5012 and weekly pivot (S3)/monthly pivot (S2)/pattern's low at 1.4867/32.
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on the pairs development in the near future are Fed Chairman's testimony on 22nd of May, great Britain's second quarterly GDP estimate announcement on 23rd of May and the US preliminary GDP announcement on 30th of May.
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