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The pattern started on the 1st of June, 2012, when the pair peaked to 4.4305; currently it is trading at 4.1559; pattern's support is at 4.0418 and pattern's resistance is at 4.2037. Trading volume seems to be decreasing in the length of the pattern. Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 1W horizon. Long traders could focus on the Bollinger band at 4.1711, weekly pivots at 4.1767 (R1) and 4.1919 (R2), pattern's resistance at 4.2037 and weekly pivot (R3) at 4.2149.
Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair on 1M horizon. Current market sentiment is strongly bearish as 71% of traders are short on the pair and all of the pending orders are to sell the euro versus its Polish counter part. Short traders could focus on the weekly pivot (PP) at 4.1537, 20-day SMA at 4.1495, cluster of resistance levels at 4.1385/278 (weekly pivot (S1), 100 and 200 day SMAs and Bollinger band) and weekly pivots at 4.1155 (S2) and 4.1003 (S3).
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on pairs development in the near future are German ZEW Economic sentiment, Flash manufacturing PMI and Ifo Business Climate announcements on 19th, 21st and 22nd of March respectively.
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