USD/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Down

The pattern started when the pair bounced from 78.617 and started to depreciate after peaking at 80.262; currently the pair is trading almost perfectly on 200 day SMA value of 78.615. The SWFX market sentiment shows that 73% or traders are holding long positions on the pair expecting recovery of the pair. Traders, who expect that the pair might move above 200 day SMA, could set the first target at daily pivot (R1) 78.747. If the pair breaches this level next targets could be at daily pivot (R2) at 78.917 and  Fibonacci retracement (61.8% of 1st to 20th of August rise) at 78.998.

Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair on 4H and 1W time horizons indicating that the pair should rebound from 200 day SMA in the short term and continue to follow pattern's trend in the long term. Short traders should set their targets at daily pivot (S1)/24th and 28th of August low at 78.464/453, daily pivot (S2)/22nd of August low at 78.293/289 and daily pivot (S3) at 78.123.