The 55-week SMA just crossed the 100-week SMA, giving out BUY signals to investors, and questioning the bearish potential of the currency pair. What make us remain bearish on the pair in the long-term, however, are some recent technical developments that imply that the rate faces strong supply pressures from levels above. To begin with, the channel developed solely to serve the purpose of reaching the triangle upper trend-line, has just been broken to the downside even following successful attempts to close the day above the 1.0048 level. Secondly, an additional channel up that has been sketched in the daily chart shows weakness already, as a symmetrical triangle inside of it signals lack of bullish momentum to complete the move towards the channel upper trend-line. Even if the rate is not distracted from the current channel, the pair is likely to bounce from the multi-year triangle trend-line once again, confirming the downtrend. In addition, the 4 hour chart shows a death cross formation on August 23, warning investors of risks stemming from the downside.
Weekly Chart
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A falling scenario would put 0.9744 at risk, leaving little to the two-month supply zone at 0.9759. A break below this level would expose 0.9745, the 100-day SMA for tests which could lead to the weekly S2 and monthly S1 cluster at 0.9704/05.
Technicals point north short-term
In the short-term, however, we do expect an advance until mid-November latest if 0.9831 - the channel bottom trend-line - remains unbroken. The pair could then touch 0.9990/1.0000, fail and plunge towards the Senkou B resistance at 0.9937.
4 Hour Chart
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A consolidation phase is implied by the pair's location inside of the Ichimoku cloud, putting forward a future resistance level at 0.9937. While Tenkan-sen lying flat gives no signals for future developments, its recent crossing below the Kijun-sen line stands in favour of an uptrend and so does the Senkou A and Senkou B crossover. The Chinkou Span beneath closing prices adds ground to the claim.
Aggregate technical indicators leave no room for weakness, pointing unanimously north, while sentiment has been steadily positive with 58 percent of all market participants being bulls.
30 Minute Chart
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The Australian employment change and unemployment rate contradicted, neutralizing the surprise pressures and causing the rate to consolidate right after a 0.5 percent dip. Volatility is likely to shake the market some more on Friday, when Canadian manufacturing sales and foreign security purchases come out.
Aggregate Technical Indicators
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