EUR/USD consolidates below 1.09, eyes weekly S1

EUR/USD has ultimately confirmed its bearish intentions, as it managed to hold below the Jan-Feb uptrend for two days in a row. The first support today is offered by the weekly S1 at 1.0852, but any encouraging US ADP numbers later in the day may provoke a sell-off down to 1.0809, namely the Feb low. Ability to pierce through the latter will expose the third demand zone for Wednesday at 1.07 (Jan low, monthly S1). On the other hand, weekly technical indicators are long and we are not ruling out the possibility of a rebound toward the 100-day SMA, the first resistance, at 1.0928 over the next 24 hours.

Bullish advantage over the bears amounts to ten percentage points in the SWFX market. Adding to that, 54-55% of all pending orders are set to sell this currency pair in 50/100-pip ranges from the spot price.