Gold to break out of triangle on risk aversion

In the Asian session on Thursday the precious metal has booked some noticeable gains, as the price is located above the January downtrend at 1,113. To show strength and ability to grow further, the bulls are required to keep XAU/USD above 1,107 (downtrend) for two consecutive trading sessions. Some support may come from the Fed tomorrow. If successful, the long traders will focus on much heavier resistance at 1,127/31 (monthly R3 and 200-day SMA). However, downside risks are not off the table, as daily and weekly technical indicators remain quite mixed.  

Advantage of long traders has been unchanged since last Thursday, as they continue holding about 55% of all open transactions in the SWFX market. Therefore, it puts the bearish portion at 45% and the gap is unchanged at ten percentage points.