Gold: negative outlook below 1,104/08

Near-term outlook for gold is moderately bearish. We see the formidable resistance zone ahead of the bullion, represented by 100-day SMA and Jan 8-20 downtrend at 1,104/08. Any close above here should trigger a rally, but the bulls are likely to struggle at 1,126/32 (monthly R3/200-day SMA). On the bearish side, we would allow for a selloff down to 1,087 (20-day SMA and monthly R1), followed by two-month uptrend and 55-day SMA at 1,076. A drop below here will increase downside pressure on gold in the mid-term, but some support should be in place at 1,065 (monthly PP) and at 1,046 (2015 low) later.

Advantage of long traders has been unchanged over the last 48 hours, as they continue holding about 55% of all open transactions in the SWFX market.