AUD/USD to stay under 100-day SMA

We no longer have a reason to be bullish on the Aussie, as AUD/USD missed an opportunity to recover after forming a double bottom. Any near-term gains are now expected to be limited by the 100-day SMA at 0.7320, while the focus is on the junior moving average. A breach of the support at 0.7165 will pave the way for a considerably deeper sell-off, potentially down to the last year's low at 0.69, and the monthly pivot point is unlikely to halt the bears.

The SWFX market is net long: 70% of traders reckon the Australian Dollar will gain value relative to its US counterpart. On the other hand, a portion of sell orders is rapidly growing. Compared to Friday, their share went from 58 to 69%.