GBP/USD at risk of losing upward momentum

The bulls keep pushing the Sterling higher, but the recovery from this year's low may not cross the resistance at 1.64 represented by the falling trend-line started in July. In a base case scenario GBP/USD should return to 1.6050, violation of which in turn will pave the way for a decline to extend to the 2013 Q4 low at 1.5851. But if the monthly studies turn out to be correct, the Sterling will have a good chance to meet the 200-day SMA at 1.6750.

Although the percentage of commands to purchase the Great British Pound has plunged from 75 to 38% since the previous report, there are as many long positions open in the SWFX market right now as there were yesterday—56%.