AUD/USD capped by 100-day SMA

Although the first two days of this week the Aussie has been grinding lower, AUD/USD is attempting to stabilise near the monthly R1 level, which in turn is strengthened by the weekly pivot point. Accordingly, we may expect a surge in the nearest future, a scenario supported by the daily technical indicators. The longer-term perspectives, however, are quite grim, as weekly and monthly studies are bearish and the price is approaching the 200-day SMA.

The market has become less optimistic with respect to the Aussie's prospects—the percentage of long positions went down from 63% to 60%. At the same time, the distribution between the buy (58%) and sell (42%) orders got more skewed towards the former.