Crude Oil Analysis: Managing Implied Volatility During EIA Inventory Releases

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Light Crude Oil is currently consolidating beneath a long-term descending trendline that extends from the higher levels established earlier in the spring, keeping the broader structure cautious despite the recent recovery attempt. Price is now testing the 102.415 region, an area that also aligns with a notable horizontal resistance level, making it an important zone for determining short-term direction.

On the downside, immediate support is positioned at 95.500, followed by a stronger support area near 92.000. Beneath that, the 90.000 level stands out as a key psychological floor that could attract defensive buying if bearish pressure increases.

From a candlestick perspective, the Heikin-Ashi structure reflects slowing bullish momentum rather than a decisive breakout. Recent candles have remained green, but the presence of both upper and lower wicks signals growing indecision in the market. The absence of strong continuation candles — particularly clean green candles without lower wicks — suggests buyers are struggling to sustain aggressive upward pressure as price approaches the descending trendline resistance.



Bullish Scenario: To change the current neutral outlook, bulls need a decisive daily close above the descending trendline, accompanied by a expansion in green Heikin-Ashi candle bodies and a bullish crossover in the MACD.

Bearish Scenario: If the resistance at the trendline holds, look for a rejection that pushes the price back toward the 95.500 support level. A breakdown below this support would likely shift the momentum back to bearish, potentially targeting the 92.000 and 90.000 levels.
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