EUR/USD breaches March high level

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


At mid-day on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency exchange rate managed to break the resistance zone of the March high levels at 1.1130/1.1138. In addition, by 14:00 GMT, the pair had reached above the weekly R3 simple pivot point at 1.1157 and confirmed the weekly R2 at 1.1136 as a support level.

In general, the recent surge of the Euro against the US Dollar has been two sided. The US Dollar has declined due to a risk-on sentiment. Namely, market participants have moved from cash into the ongoing stock and other asset recovery.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has, first of all, sent a letter to banks to reduce lending. Secondly, comments have been made that the bank might return to zero percent interest rates from the negative zone. In addition, major inflation records have been hit in Spain and Germany. Inflation not seen since 1985 in Spain and the 1970s in Germany is a clear indicator that the European monetary policy has to be tightened to stop the price surge.

If the Euro continues appreciate in value, compared to the US Dollar, the EUR/USD could encounter resistance in the upper trend line of a channel up pattern, which captures the pair's March surge. In the meantime, note the 1.1200 and 1.1250 levels, which might act as resistance.

On the other hand, a decline of the currency pair would look for support in the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1.1114. Below the pivot point, the 1.1100 mark is expected to provide support, before reaching the 1.1050 mark. Note that the 1.1050 mark is being strengthened by the 50-hour simple moving average and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.1048.

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