- Caixin Insight Group
Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly dropped further in April, fuelling doubts about whether Beijing's stimulus measures can sustain growth in the world's second-largest economy. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index slipped to 49.4 in April from 49.7 in March. This was the 14th month the index remained below 50, signalling contraction. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the official Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 50.1 in April, easing from March's 50.2 and slightly above the 50-point mark that separates expansion in activity from contraction. Despite the weaker data, economists argue Beijing is unlikely to ease monetary policy in the near term given concerns over rising corporate-debt levels and because the official PMI remains in expansionary territory. Corporate debt is now around 160% of gross domestic product, up from 98% in 2008, according to estimates by Standard & Poor's Financial Services.
Beijing's recent attempts to boost the economy, including strong credit expansion and a front-loading of 2016 infrastructure budgets early this year, ensured the first-quarter growth of6.7% in line with the government's 6.5-7.0% target range for 2016. Economists expect that the trend will continue to slow to 6.5% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017-2018.
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