"Import growth in September is heavily driven by external demand and the processing trade industry, instead of domestic demand"
-Le Xia, Chief Asia Economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA
China's surprisingly positive trade data in September may reduce a need of bold policy actions such as inters rate cut; however, prospects of prolonged property downturn suggests more measures are still required to bolster the nation's economy. Exports jumped 15.3% from the previous year, the biggest leap since February 2013 outstripping the 12% market consensus. Imports surged 7% beating forecasts for a 2% drop, resulting in a trade surplus of $31 billion, down from $49.8 billion in August. However, economists said it was too early to claim that China's trade sector has turned the corner, underlining that its unexpectedly buoyant imports last month could be due to one-off factors, such as factories taking advantage of falling global commodity prices to replenish inventories of iron ore, copper and oil. Export demand is helping the nation's economy withstand a property slump even as the global outlook deteriorates. Analysts predict China's exports to stay relatively robust in the near term as the US economy continues to strengthen. Apple Inc.'s new iPhone may boost China's exports by about 1% a month for the rest of 2014, according to Bank of America.
Some economists expect economic growth to fall short of the government's 7.5% target this year, as several gauges have moderated in recent months, including manufacturing, retail sales, industrial production, and house prices.
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