ISM Services PMI Signals Continued Expansion in March 2026 Amid Slower Growth

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The March 2026 ISM Services PMI came in at 54%, showing that the services sector continued to expand for the 21st straight month. However, the pace of growth slowed compared to February's stronger reading of 56.1%. This result also signals that the overall U.S. economy has now grown for an impressive 70 consecutive months. Most industries within the services sector remained in expansion mode, with 13 reporting growth, while only Retail Trade, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting, and Public Administration experienced contraction.

Looking deeper into the report, New Orders stood out as a major positive, climbing to 60.6%. This was a 2-point increase from February and the highest level recorded since February 2023, suggesting solid demand ahead. Business Activity remained in growth territory at 53.9%, but this marked a sharp drop of 6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some cooling in current operations. The Employment Index was a notable weak spot, falling into contraction at 45.2% after dropping 6.6 points. This decline surprised analysts, especially given the continued strength in both business activity and incoming orders.



At the same time, inflation pressures intensified. The Prices Index jumped significantly by 7.7 percentage points to 70.7%, representing the largest monthly increase in over 13 years and the highest level since October 2022. Supplier Deliveries registered 56.2%, meaning deliveries continued to slow, extending a trend that has now lasted 16 consecutive months. A dominant theme throughout the report was the effect of geopolitical tensions, particularly conflicts involving Iran. Many companies reported supply chain disruptions, shipping delays, and increased war-risk surcharges tied to these tensions. These factors also contributed to rising energy costs, including higher prices for gas, diesel, and oil, which played a major role in the spike in the Prices Index.
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