2026 Global Economic, Oil Demand, and Supply Outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The outlook for 2026 suggests continued solid growth in both the global economy and oil demand, while growth in oil supply is expected to slow compared with 2025.

Global economic growth in 2026 is forecast to remain strong at 3.1%, supported by ongoing fiscal spending in major economies and easing trade uncertainty. Key contributors to this growth include India, expected to grow by 6.6%, China at 4.5%, and the United States at 2.1%. Additional fiscal stimulus is anticipated early in the year in the US, China, Japan, and Germany.

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the previous assessment. Most of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, which are forecast to add more than 1.2 million barrels per day, led by Other Asia, India, and China. OECD countries are expected to contribute around 0.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Americas.



On the supply side, forecast to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching an average of 54.8 million barrels per day. The main sources of growth are expected to be Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina. In addition, natural gas liquids and other non-conventional liquids from countries are expected to rise by 0.1 million barrels per day. Demand for crude oil in 2026 is projected to remain at 43.0 million barrels per day, which is 0.6 million barrels per day higher than in 2025.

In the near term, from December 2025 onward, product markets are expected to be influenced by seasonal and structural factors. Winter conditions are likely to weigh on transport fuel demand, although the year-end holiday season should temporarily support markets through increased air travel and road transport, especially in the United States. At the same time, geopolitical constraints and unplanned refinery outages affecting Russian product supplies are expected to tighten markets and support higher product crack spreads, particularly for diesel.
Back to articles

Actual Topics

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:09:39 GMT

Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates

At today's Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to raise the overnight interest rate to 0.75 percent. As a result, the interest rate paid on deposits that financial institutions hold at the Bank of Japan, excluding required reserves, will now be 0.75 percent. The Bank noted that Japan's economy is recovering moderately, although some areas remain weak.

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 13:45:08 GMT

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rate to 3.75% Amid Cooling Inflation

Bank of England lowered the Bank Rate to 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote. The majority opted for the cut because inflation has fallen to 3.2% and is expected to hit the 2% target by mid-2026, while a cooling labor market and stagnant GDP growth suggest the economy needs less "restriction." However, the four dissenting members argued for holding rates

Subscribe to "Fundamental Analysis" feed

Suscribir
Para conocer más sobre la plataforma de Trading de CFD y Forex de Dukascopy Bank, SWFX y otras informaciones relacionadas con el Trading,
llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre la posible cooperación, por favor llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre las opciones binarias de Dukascopy Bank / La plataforma de operaciones de Forex, SWFX y otra información relacionada con el Trading, por favor llámenos o solicite una devolución de llamada.
Para conocer más sobre la plataforma de Trading de CFD y Forex de Dukascopy Bank, SWFX y otras informaciones relacionadas con el Trading,
llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información acerca de la plataforma de operaciones Crypto Trading / CFD / Forex, SWFX y otra información relacionada con el comercio,
llámenos o realice una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre Business Introducer y otra información relacionada con el comercio,
llámenos o realice una solicitud de devolución de llamada.
Para obtener más información sobre la posible cooperación, por favor llámenos o haga una solicitud de devolución de llamada.