ISM Manufacturing PMI at 49.1

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank for the seventh straight month in September 2025, with the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1%. This marks a slight improvement from August but still signals contraction. Despite the ongoing manufacturing slowdown, the broader U.S. economy remains in expansion, now for the 65th consecutive month.

Demand continues to weaken. New orders dropped again after just one month of growth, and export orders declined sharply for the seventh month in a row. Businesses cite ongoing trade friction, tariffs, and uncertain economic policies as the main reasons behind soft demand.



Production saw a slight increase to 51%, likely due to a temporary uptick in orders in August. However, this growth is expected to be short-lived given the steep decline in new orders this month. Employment in the manufacturing sector continued to fall, marking its eighth straight month of decline. Companies are cutting staff and not filling open roles due to ongoing uncertainty in future demand.

Rising costs and tariffs remain the biggest challenges. Raw material prices, especially for steel and aluminum, continue to rise, largely due to tariff impacts. Many businesses are passing these added costs on to customers through surcharges, raising prices by as much as 20%. Capital investment projects are being put on hold, as companies wait for more stability before committing to new equipment or long-term purchases.
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