Coffee prices rise in fears of a further drought

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Coffee prices have seen a significant increase due to concerns about the future supply of coffee crops. Year-to-date, coffee prices have risen by over 72%, outperforming the S&P 500 index by nearly 50% so far this year.



Ongoing drought conditions in Brazil are raising concerns about long-term damage to the country's coffee crops, driving prices higher. Since April, below-average rainfall has been damaging coffee trees during the critical flowering stage, which is threatening the 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Brazil is facing its driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center. However, recent rainfall has offered some temporary relief, with Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-growing region, receiving 60.9 mm of rain last week—127% of the usual average—helping to ease immediate concerns, though worries about future crop damage persist



The 4-hour chart with simple moving averages indicates that the current price is trading above both the short-term and long-term averages. Until a new price level resistance is found, coffee prices are still in the discovery phase.
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