EUR/USD still holds quite well at the current level given all the turmoil that we have been through.
We believe that the US Dollar has been oversold recently. Going forward we expect the Dollar to benefit from strong US data, particularly the Fed is currently undecided on whether or not it will be de pursuing the QE3 or any source of further easing at the end of the 2Q.
We do not think EUR/CHF is going to move at all, the pair is going to stay at 1.20 and it is not going to move very far in our view, while USD/CHF will climb to 0.96.
The Bank of Spain said on 27 March that the Spanish economy contracted again in the 1Q of 2012, after declining 0.3% in the three months to December. Moreover, the Bank expects that the economy to shrink 1.5% in 2012, due to high unemployment rate, meaning low income tax revenues and high demand for benefits.Dukascopy asked Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Professor of
For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to extend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step towards increasing the "people's currency" role in cross-border trade settlement.Following the interview with Roy Teo, FX Strategist at ABN Amro
The US Dollar appreciated against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday. The dollar's recent strengthening has been driven by improving economic data of the US and the Federal Reserve's positive outlook.C. Hecht, Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, evaluated the greenback's performance and gave a forecast for the US Dollar against the basket of currencies for a short and long term.
The Euro and the Australian Dollar reached their highest levels against the Japanese currency since October '11 and May '11, respectively, while the US dollar slightly lost its value due to a setback last week. Dukascopy interviewed the Head of FX Strategy at JP Morgan Chase & Co in Singapore concerning a forecast for ASD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.
For more than three years, China has been developing a strategic plan to globalize the Yuan. It was announced last week , that China is planning to ex-tend the Yuan-denominated loans to BRICS countries, which would be a significant step in increasing the "people's currency" role in cross border trade settlement.
Dukascopy is carrying out a research to evaluate the current Libor-setting system, find out whether new measures proposed by the BBA can combat the potential future manipulations.
The recent NZD performance can only be described as strong. The currency is currently around 25% above its long-run average or around 30% above its PPP equilibrium. While the high NZD partly reflects positive cyclical fundamentals like high NZ commodity prices, the currency still looks a shade overvalued.
In light of a steady recovery of the US economy, Dukascopy decided to interview Olivier Morand, Professor of Economics at University of Connecticut, who shared his opinion on the present economic situation in the US and its prospects.
For this year we anticipate that GDP growth will shrink from 4.3-4% to 3-3.5%.
The yen fell to a nine-month low against the dollar dropping 0.6 percent to 81.63 per dollar on Friday. Japan's currency also lost 0.3 percent of its value against the EU common currency falling to 108.33 per euro. The yen has weakened 7 percent in the past three months, what makes the Japan's currency the worst performer among 10 key
I doubt whether Eurozone leaders will raise the limit, nor should they in my opinion. There is a risk that bailouts of this kind serve only to delay the inevitable.
LTRO are increasing amount of euros in circulation. There is now over 300 billion more euros in the monetary system. Therefore, the price tends to go down, it is all about supply and demand. Now we have a small pull back, but we would not expect it to persist, because we think that the market would embrace the potential positive
I believe the Eurozone leaders will meet the requirements of G20 and will increase the funding limit. Nevertheless, it will take some time for countries like Mexico, which are willing to contribute to the fund of the IMF. I think, that finally all the G20 countries will raise money necessary for the IMF.
I think for oil the fundamentals are very strong, while inventories and oil spare capacities are very low. If we look at the downside risks which are primarily concerning Greece and the EU sovereign debt that should becoming a bigger financial issue, that is receding very quickly. Whereas, on the other side the geopolitical issue is rising Iran tensions. The
I do not have an optimistic view of any government in the world when the subject is 'Fiscal Responsibility.' Only when a government holds up a Constitution declaring that it cannot spend more than what is taxed in any one year, and lets the private sector manage ALL the welfare problems of that country would I find any optimism.
Currently, the German economy is favourable, as the domestic demand is in a very good position same as consumption, which has increased due to the good situation in German labour market. We predict that the consumer spending will increase by 1 % this year.
I believe that the sanctions imposed on Iran, the EU decision to stop importing crude oil and agreement on the second bailout package for Greece will significantly affect the consumer prices in the EU.
The Portuguese government, being under the auspices and directions of the EC-ECB-IMF, are currently implementing the exact same measures that the Greek government implemented in Greece, under the diktat of the troika.
By the end of the Q1 we forecast the Japanese currency to hit the level of 78
I do not have a particularly excited forecast for the year, I guess it is going to be rather flattish. My official forecast for the USD/JPY is around 80 at the end of Q4.
The Pound has been obviously knocked on the immediate reaction on the Moody's cutting the credit ratings of the troubled Euro zone countries. To be perfectly honest, I do not think the rating agencies tend to have much of an impact on the markets. They do not really reveal to us anything we do not know.