© Jacob Skinhoj
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I believe some market participants, especially some US hedge funds, thought that the Danish Krone and the Danish central bank were more likely to respond the same way as SNB did if the Danish currency reserve increased much like in Switzerland. However, after cutting the interest rates four times to the same level as in Switzerland, it would be correct to say that it apparently has worked, since the currency influx has stopped. Hence, I do not think there is a need for the Danmarks Nationalbank to cut the interest rates more in the foreseeable future.
Denmark is monitoring its property market and is ready to act should the country's efforts to defend its euro peg result in unsustainable house-price distortions. Do you expect this scenario to take place any time soon?
The short Danish mortgage rates are below zero at the moment, which is a positive signal for housing prices, since you are closed to be paid for borrowing. If the short interest rates remain below zero, I believe that the Mortgage bank Association or the Danish Parliament will consider what actions to take, in order for the property prices not to appreciate even further, for example, some limiting in regards of interest only borrowing.
What will be the major drivers for the Krone in Q2?
At the current moment, the main driver is the events which take place in the Euro zone, especially the situation around Greece. In case the Euro continues to weaken against the US Dollar, we might witness further liquidity influx in the market, which could eventually result in a further Danish Krone appreciation.
What are your forecasts for USD/DKK and CHF/DKK for the shorter and longer term?
We expect to see the CHF/DKK trading at 6.96 in April, whereas for the July forecast we anticipate 7.16. Considering the USD/DKK, we are about to revise it upwards, suggesting it should be strengthened at 7.13 and in July it should stay unchanged.