Italgas S.p.A. stock analysis

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Italgas has firmly established itself as the leading gas distribution operator in Europe. Following the €5.3 billion acquisition of 2i Rete Gas, the company now controls roughly 55% of the Italian market and operates a network of approximately 155,000 kilometers serving nearly 13 million customers. This acquisition effectively removed its main domestic competitor and reinforced Italgas's scale advantage, bargaining power, and operational efficiency. At the same time, the group has repositioned itself as a "Network Tech" company, emphasizing digital infrastructure and readiness for green gases such as hydrogen and biomethane. The company's 2025–2031 strategic plan is the largest in its 188-year history, with total investments of €16.5 billion. Management targets EBITDA of around €3.0 billion by 2031, implying a compound annual growth rate of roughly 12%. A key pillar of this plan is the full digitization of the gas network, allowing Italgas to operate a technology-neutral grid capable of transporting both natural gas and renewable gases. More than 90% of revenues are regulated by the Italian authority ARERA, providing high visibility and stability. The Regulatory Asset Base is expected to expand steadily and reach about €19.1 billion by 2030, underpinning long-term earnings growth.



Italgas trades at a trailing P/E of about 15.6x, slightly below the Italian market average but well above the European utility average, reflecting a clear growth premium. The forward P/E of roughly 12.1x to 13.5x suggests investors expect higher earnings in 2026 as synergies from the 2i Rete Gas acquisition flow through. The PEG ratio, estimated at 1.7 to 1.8, is high for a regulated utility, indicating the stock is priced more for future growth than for yield alone. Earnings growth has been strong, with a nearly 34% increase over the past year. Looking ahead, consensus forecasts point to EPS growth of about 10% per year and EBITDA growth of around 12% through 2031, supported by expected annual synergies of roughly €250 million by 2028 from recent integrations.

Over the past two years, average daily volatility has been about 1.5%, with price movements remaining relatively stable despite temporary expansion during 2025. The share price increased by roughly 88% from early 2024 to early 2026, while the one-year total return between 2025 and 2026 reached approximately 102%.
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