The yellow metal's price made an attempt to surge above the 1,960.00 mark, and it failed to pass it. The 1,960.00 level did not only provide psychological round price level resistance, but was also strengthened by the resistance of the 100-hour simple moving average.
On Tuesday, the rate had retreated and traded below the 55-hour SMA below 1,940.00.
Economic Calendar Analysis
As the last week of the month, the following week is expected to be a quiet one. However, there are events that should be watched in the case a sharp move occurs.
On Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT traders should watch the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data. The event is capable of causing volatility increases above average level.
On Thursday, the US Preliminary GDP and the US Unemployment claims are set to be published. Due to these events usually not being released at the same time, the past reactions need to be combined. Namely, in the case of the same direction surprise the volatility pips need to be added one to another. On the other hand, different results shown by each data set could cancel one another out.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The yellow metal has a couple of possible scenarios that are based upon whether and how the resistance of the hourly simple moving averages impacts the price.
First of all, a combined resistance of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs could push the price down. In the case of a decline, the metal would retreat to the monthly pivot point at 1,907.07.
On the other hand, the rate might continue to trade sideways, as it had been doing since August 20.
Meanwhile, watch out for possible one by one breaking of the resistance of the SMAs and a pass of the 1,960.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, on Friday the price found support in the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,916.78. In the meantime, note that the 1,977.55 level could provide resistance.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain neutral
On Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was almost neutral, as of total open position volume 54% was long.
The sentiment was 52% long on Monday.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 66% to buy.
Orders were 75% to sell on Monday.