The 55-hour simple moving average has forced the USD/JPY to drop below the 107.00 level. However, the drop was stopped by the lower trend line of a dominant channel down pattern.
In general, a consolidation was expected either up or sideways. Which one will occur depends on whether the resistance of the 107.00 level would get passed.
The Federal Reserve released the FOMC Statement, where the US policymakers provided in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on maintaining the Federal Funds Rate unchanged. Note, that FOMC Economic Projections were released at the same time.
The Fed suggested that it would cut the interest rate in 2020. The median target for the federal funds rate remains 2.4% for 2019. Note, that the Federal Reserve has not cut the rate since the financial crisis. However, recent employment data set and inflation data releases have led analysts to forecast cut rates in the future.
Minor US events
The data that is noted by the financial markets as important starts on Wednesday. On that day, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders will be published at 12:30 GMT.
This event since February has caused moves from 3.9 to 16.5 pips. Moreover, the 16.5 pip was an anomaly, as the rest of the events have caused from 3.9 to 7.6 pips.
On Thursday, the US Final GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. This is the least important GDP of the three quarterly publications of the US GDP. Since March 2018 this event has caused moves from 6.6 pips to 16.5 pips.
The full review of all of the notable events is available in video on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short-term daily review
The USD/JPY has dropped below the 107.00 level. On Tuesday morning, the drop was stopped by the lower trend line of a large scale descending channel pattern at 106.80.The currency pair was expected to trade sideways until the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average declines. The 55-hour SMA, was the technical level, which previously pushed the rate down and was also the cause for the Monday's sharp drop.
On the other hand, the rate could even surge above the 107.00 level and approach the SMA on its own, without trading sideways and waiting for the moving average to move down.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the drops were still in the borders of the long term descending channel pattern.
Moreover, the pair still has room for a decline, as the lower trend line of the pattern was located at the 106.50 level.
Daily chart
On Tuesday, traders on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were still short. Namely, 73% of open USD/JPY position volume was in long positions.
Despite the drop, traders have stuck to being long on the pair. Most likely these positions are in the red.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders became neutral on Tuesday, as 50% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to buy. Previously, sell orders dominated.