- 61% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Pound
- 58% of traders are bearish on the pair (+2%)
- Upside potential up to post-Brexit high of 1.4313
- Upcoming data releases: US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Sterling should be guided by the 55-hour SMA in this session.
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK Manufacturing Production data on Wednesday. The GBP/USD currency lost 10 pips, or 0.07%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4190 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed lower-than-expected data in Manufacturing Production in February. On month-to-month basis factory production decreased by 0.2%, compared to a growth of 0.1% in the prior month. Surprisingly, but Britain's construction and manufacturing sectors output showed downturn, being the main cause for this decrease. The Britain's economic activity in Q1 showed its growth pace to slow down a little bit, based on the February's activity data.
Uneventful day
The only fundamental data release today is the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan at 1400GMT.
GBP/USD breaches trend-line
The GBP/USD pair was guided by the 55-hour SMA during the first part of Thursday, while the upper limit was set by a trend-line and the weekly R2. The former was breached mid-session, and the Sterling had remained near this line by Friday morning.Some upside potential is still apparent in the market, as the Pound might try to reach the 1.43 level. This area is reinforced by the monthly R1, the weekly R3 and the post-Brexit high of 1.4313. The 55– and 100-hour SMAs could continue guiding the pair towards this territory, as supported by bullish technical indicators.
Given that this should be a rather uneventful day, a breakout above this area is unlikely. In terms of support, a possible downside target is be the weekly R1 at 1.4150.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been appreciating gradually against the US Dollar since the beginning of March – the movement which has been guided by the 55-day SMA.
Technical indicators on the daily time-frame are gradually moving south, so a breakout of the 55-day SMA is expected within the following weeks. This scenario is likewise supported by the pair's downward-sloping movement in two long-term channels.
A breakout of the 55-day SMA should push the Pound towards the 100-day moving average currently located near the 1.38 mark.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment is once again bearish, as 58% of open positions are short in this session (+2%). In addition, 53% of pending orders is to sell the Sterling.
OANDA traders remain bearish on the Pound with 61% of their open positions being short (+2%). Saxo Bank is likewise bearish with 64% of its clients holding short positions (+3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility