US labour market conditions deteriorated in November, contrasting with the Fed's optimistic outlook given recent solid job gains. The Labor Market Conditions Index declined to 2.9 points, down from 3.9 points recorded in October. The worse than expected data follows the latest positive non-farm payroll report that showed robust job creation in the US. The report resulted in increased bets that the first monetary policy tightening would take place in the year ahead. US policy makers are closely watching the labour market data, as it will be crucial for deciding on a first interest rate increase. The recent positive developments in the US economy underscores the divergence between the monetary policy of the US central bank and its counterparts, which has resulted in the Greenback strengthening and touching multi-year highs versus most of its major peers.
UK manufacturing data, which is due to be released later today, is expected to show that manufacturing output fell at the beginning of the final quarter of the year as geopolitical tensions and both domestic and overseas economic headwinds impact market sentiment. Measured on a monthly basis, manufacturing production is projected to have fallen to 0.2% in October from 0.4% a month before, while industrial output is seen to have declined 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September. Despite the forecasts of a slight slowdown in October, Markit's PMI data for the first two months of the fourth quarter pointed the manufacturing sector had continued to expand at a steady pace, with the corresponding index coming in at 51.6 and 53.2 in September and October, respectively, staying firmly above the 50-mark threshold.
UK manufacturing data today
UK's manufacturing data will be the first important release this week and most likely it will also give some impact to the market. Measured on a monthly basis, manufacturing production is projected to have fallen to 0.2% in October from 0.4% a month before. However, all in all this is going to be relatively calm week, after previous two, when a great amount of data were announced.GBP/USD on a gradual down-trend
Already for more than a month GBP/USD is testing the strength of the down-trend, especially its upper trend-line, that started to take its shape on July, when the pair reached a six-year high at 1.7193. The pair's trading range is becoming narrower and that could potentially provoke a break-out. Since the Pound has reached this year's low just recently, we expect a bullish break-out to be the case; however, there still is a downside risk of the pair falling lower, if it fails to breach the monthly R1 at 1.5921.Daily chart
Yesterday the pair declined to the lowest level seen this year at 1.5542; however, at that point the Pound received a bullish impetus that has pushed the pair near the down-trend's resistance line once again. Nonetheless, the bias remains to be bearish and it will continue to be that way until the pair breaks above at least the monthly PP at 1.5756.
Hourly chart