EUR/USD reacts to the Fed

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The United States Federal Reserve announced its Federal Funds Rate. Markets expected the Fed to keep the base interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. The Fed has done exactly that. However, the US Dollar declined on the announcement, as the market participants must have seen this as a relief from possible rate hike. Namely, inflation has shown to be persistent in the US and a rate hike was a possibility.

After the event, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell revealed at the follow up press conference that not one but three rate cuts are possible in 2024. These news caused a drop of the Dollar that continued overnight. The Dollar index reached a slow as 102.90, where it found support.

On the EUR/USD charts this resulted in a surge up to the 1.0940 level and the weekly R1 simple pivot point, which acted as resistance at 1.0943.

However, later on Thursday the pair dropped due to the Euro being beaten down by lower than expected European Purchasing Managers Index and a spill over effect from the sudden SNB rate cut. The Swiss cut their base interest rate and caused a Dollar surge that was reflected on the EUR/USD chart by a drop below 1.0900.

Economic Calendar Analysis



There are no more notable events scheduled for this week.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

In the near term future, the pair could once again test the 1.0940 level or look for support in the 1.0880 level and the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the rate has passed below the 100-day simple moving average. However, support could still be found in the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages.

Daily chart




Traders are short

After the US Fed events, traders were 62% short, as that amount of open position volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 54% to sell.

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