EUR/USD likely to surge

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The EUR/USD has started the week with a surge. By the middle of Monday's GMT trading hours, the currency exchange rate had reached the resistance of the 1.1300 level.

The rate's future scenarios were based upon what would occur at the 1.1300 level.

Economic Calendar Analysis



Notable macroeconomic data releases are set to start on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be released. In June, it caused a 26.5 pip move on the EUR/USD.

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be released. They could create above average volatility.

On Friday, the US Producer Price Index and US Core Producer Price Index are set to be released. In the recent past they have not caused notable volatility.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

It is likely that the exchange rate could face the resistance level formed by the weekly R1 at 1.1308. Thus, it is likely that some downside potential could prevail.

Meanwhile, it is unlikely that the rate could decline below the support formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly and monthly PPs in the 1.1250 area.

On the other hand, the weekly R1 pivot point could fail to provide resistance. In this case note that the nearest possible resistance level—the weekly R2, is located at the 1.1364 mark.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the currency exchange rate has broken the resistance of the channel down pattern that captures the decline, which was caused by additional monetary easing from the ECB.

Daily chart




Traders remain short

On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 60% of all EUR/USD open position volume was in short positions.

On Monday, traders were 61% short. They remained short despite the recovery of the Euro against the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 55% to sell.

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