Lower levels of volatility may be considered as a primary scenario, if no significant geopolitical events occur this week.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The current technical outlook for XAU/USD is cautiously bearish as the price continues to trade below the long-term SMA 180, following a clear trend reversal initiated by a bearish moving average crossover earlier in the week. While the price is currently consolidating around the 4700 psychological level, the downward slope of the SMA 30 and an RSI reading of 47.56 suggests a lack of buying conviction and neutral momentum that leans toward further downside pressure. To see a meaningful recovery, the asset needs to reclaim the immediate resistance at 4790; however, as long as it remains capped by these indicators, a retest of the major support level at 4610 remains the more probable scenario.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily chart for XAU/USD, the primary trend has shifted from a parabolic rally in early 2026 to a definitive descending structure characterized by a series of lower highs and a dominant descending trendline that currently caps any significant upside. The price is presently hovering near a critical pivot at 4703, finding temporary horizontal support that aligns with the late-January price action, while remaining trapped below the major resistance level of 4858. Momentum as measured by the RSI (30) is currently sitting at 47.75, which reflects a neutral yet slightly bearish-leaning sentiment as it fails to cross above the 50-midline, suggesting that the recent consolidation is more likely a pause in a broader downtrend than a reversal. Given the current structure, if the price fails to hold the current 4700 handle, the next logical objective for sellers would be the significant horizontal support floor near 4443, whereas a breakout above the descending trendline would be required to shift the macro narrative back to a bullish bias.Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
The sentiment for XAU/USD is currently heavily skewed toward the buy side, with 72% of traders holding long positions compared to only 26% short. This indicates strong retail confidence in a price increase, resulting in a positive net ratio of +45.60%.