This week, the market could move due to a couple of scheduled macroeconomic data releases.
On Tuesday, the US Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index could move the markets via the US Dollar at 14:00 GMT. However, at the same time, the JOLTS Job Openings numbers will be out. The two releases can double their impact or cancel one another.
On Wednesday, the US Dollar could adjust to the publication of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT.
On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management will publish the Services sector Purchasing Managers Index at 14:00 GMT. Large deviation from the forecast could cause a USD move.
The top event of the week is scheduled for Friday. At 12:30 GMT, the US monthly employment data sets will be published. The release consists of the Average Hourly Earnings change, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
In the near term future, the price might look for support in the 2,640.00 level, before approaching the lower trend line of the channel pattern and the 200-hour simple moving average. If these levels fail, the pair could drop to the 2,613.50/2,617.50 range.
On the other hand, a resumption of the prior surge is expected to face the 2,650.00/2,655.00 zone. Above 2,655.00, note the combination of the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages and the upper trend line of the channel down pattern.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal found support in the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages, which have been the cause of the resumed surge of the price.Most recently, after a long period of consolidation, the metal has broken out of the consolidation rate to the upside.
There is not much to add. Gold keeps heading higher, as the USD is loosing value due to rate cuts, and there are signs of risks to the global economy. Both aspects fuel the surge.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders cut short positions
On Wednesday, 72% of volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 point range around the latest price, the pending orders were 60% to sell the metal.
On Monday, traders reduced the bearish sentiment by being 70% short. At the same time, the pending orders were 56% to sell.