Economic Calendar
On Tuesday, the combination of the US CB Consumer Confidence index and the JOLTS Job Openings might create a move of the USD that would impact the financial markets.
On Wednesday, market participants are set to ignore the ADP Non-farm Employment release and other releases due to two major events.
During the early morning hours of the day, the Bank of Japan will announce its Policy Rate, release its Monetary Policy Statement. Moreover, the central bank will publish the Bank of Japan Outlook Report and host a press conference.
The same day, at 18:00 GMT, The US Federal Reserve is set to announced the Federal Funds Rate and release the Federal Open Market Committee Statement. In general, the Fed is announcing its policy and the reasons for it.
The markets expect the Fed to keep its base interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. In theory, the USD should not move during this event. However, all eyes will be on the statement, as the markets will be looking for clues about potential policy changes in September.
Currently the markets expect the Fed to cut rates in September. The statement might reveal that there will be no rate cut or that the Fed is 100% set to do it.
Moreover, additional information is set to be given by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the follow up Press Conference at 18:30 GMT. In some cases, comments made by the head of the Fed during the press question session reverse the initial market reaction to the statement.
In general, expect high volatility.
On Friday, the US monthly employment data sets are bound to move the markets. At 12:30 GMT, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and the Unemployment Rate. Better than expected data is set to strengthen the USD. Below forecast numbers are likely to cause a decline of the USD.
USD/JPY hourly chart analysis
In the near term future, the 100-hour SMA could connect with the resistance of the trend line that has been guiding the pair down. The combined resistance might push the currency exchange rate through the support of the 153.00 level and even the 152.00 level. Meanwhile, note that the pair is not finding any support in the 50-hour SMA.On the other hand, a recovery of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen would have to break the 100-hour SMA and the trend line. Above these two technical levels, resistance is expected to be found in the 154.50 level and the weekly simple pivot point at 154.42. Higher above, take into account the descending 200-hour simple moving average and the 155.00 and 155.50 levels.
Hourly Chart
USD/JPY daily candle chart analysis
On Friday, it was observed that the 2022 high level and the 200-day simple moving average had provided support and caused the retracement back up.A broader recovery of the USD/JPY might face resistance of the 100-day simple moving average near 156.50. Higher above, note the 50-day SMA and the support and resistance zone near 158.00.
On the other hand, a decline of the USD/JPY can find support in prior notable high levels at 152.00, 150.95, 150.00 and 149.20.
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are long
On Friday, traders were 64% long and orders were 53% to buy.
On Monday, open positions were 62% long.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-point range around the rate were 64% to buy.
On Monday, open positions were 62% long.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-point range around the rate were 64% to buy.