EUR/USD remains below 1.0900

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Despite the ECB rate cut, despite the good US employment data, the resistance of the 1.0900 held. The rate appears to be more respecting round exchange rate levels than fundamentals. However, it could be a coincidence that the US employment data did not come in below expectations and cause a breaking of the 1.0900 mark.

Economic Calendar Analysis



There are a number of notable upcoming scheduled events to watch.

On June 12 at 12:30 GMT, the United States Consumer Price Index will reveal how inflation has done in the US over the past month. The event will reveal whether the decision to keep US interest rates unchanged has continued to push inflation lower.

On the same day, at 18:00 GMT, the United States Federal Reserve is set to announce its Federal Funds Rate and release the FOMC Statement. In general, the central bank is expected to keep rate unchanged, but the information in the statement will reveal when and how policy changes could occur.

On June 13, the US Producer Price Index will be published at 12:30 GMT. The index shows inflation at the producer level. It is considered that inflation at the producer level results in consumer price increases. However, in most cases that does not occur. Due to this reason the event has a minor impact.

The week afterwards, on June 18 at 12:30 GMT, minor impact could occur due to the publication of the US monthly Retail Sales change. Higher retail sales indicate a healthy economy, but also signal inflation.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

In regards to support note the 1.0800 mark and the support zone that surrounds it. The 1.0800 has been impacting the rate all of May. First it acted as strong resistance and afterwards turne dinto support in the later part of the month. Below this level, the 1.0750 has shown to be capable of impacting the pair. Meanwhile, 1.0700 level had been ignored during late April.

On the other hand, a surge of the currency pair would have to break the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, before the pair attempts to reach above 1.0900. Above the 1.0900 mark, the 1.1000 level is expected to act as strong resistance.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the rate is above the resistance of the upper trend line of the pattern that captured the move of the last months. Moreover, the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages were broken.

Most recently, the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages appear to have turned into support near the 1.0800 mark.

Daily chart




Watch the sentiment

In general, after the US employment release, traders closed their short positons and became 52% short, which is almost neutral. It appears that traders wait for more clues, before opening positions.

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