On Wednesday, the top event of them all is set to take place. The release of the US Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Statement at 19:00 GMT. Afterwards, at 19:30 GMT, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is set to host a press conference.
Note that the ADP Non-farm Employment Change publication is also scheduled for Wednesday. It is most likely that I won't cause an impact, as the markets will wait for the Fed rate.
On Thursday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is set to be published at 15:00 GMT. A big deviation from the forecast could cause a market reaction
On Friday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Employment data sets will be released and they are set to impact the market. The release consists of Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings month on month difference.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A continuation of the surge above 2,050.00 could be slowed down by the 2,060.00 and 2,075.00 levels, before the metal reaches the late 2023 high levels near 2,085.00/2,090.00.
On the other hand, a decline might look for support in the 2,035.00/2,040.00 range. Further below, note the ascending 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages near 2,030.00. Below 2,030.00, there are two support ranges near 2,010.00 and 2,050.00.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has broken the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average. Next resistance is the 2,065.00/2,090.00 range.Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders are shorting
On Monday, 57% were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 61% to sell the metal.
On Tuesday, positions were still 57% short. Orders were 75% to sell.