This week, the top event of them all is scheduled for Wednesday. At 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its Federal Funds Rate and release the FOMC Statement and Economic Projections. In general, the markets expect the US Fed to hike 0.75%. However, some market participants expect the US monetary policymakers to strengthen the USD even more, as they await a 1.00% hike.
Afterwards, at 18:30 GMT, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will host a press conference. Quite often, the press conference reverses the initial market moves that have been caused by the monetary decision. Namely, the Chairman states something, which the market interprets as either dovish or hawkish.
On Friday, at 13:45 GMT, the US PMIs are scheduled to be release. However, in most cases the market ignores this event.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
In the meantime, note that the 2021 low level at 1,670.50 appears to be acting as short term resistance and support together with the 50-hour simple moving average.
In general, a surge above 1,680.00 might encounter resistance in the 200-hour SMA and the 1,700.00 mark. On the other hand, a decline below 1,655.00 is expected to find support in round price levels.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the price has passed below the 2021 and 2022 low level zone at 1,675.00/1,680.00. On September 19 it was observed that the previous support zone has turned into resistance.Daily Candle Chart
Traders are long
Before the rate statement, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was 69% bullish. Namely, 69% of open position volume was in long positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price, pending trade orders were 52% to buy and sell the precious metal.
On Tuesday, open positions were 67% long and orders were 90% to buy.