In the near term future, the exchange rate was expected to remain between 1.1870and 1.1800.
Economic Calendar Analysis
There are couple events that could impact the EUR/USD pair.
On Thursday, at 11:45 GMT, the European Central Bank would publish its Main Refinancing Rate, which most likely would remain at a 0.00%. However, despite the rate remaining unchanged, since March, the rate has moved from 16.9 to 82.6 pips on the announcement.
On the same day, at 12:30 GMT a group of minor US data sets is scheduled to be published. The set will consist of US Producers Price Index, Core Price Index and Unemployment claims. In most cases these data releases cause insignificant moves.
The week will end with the publication of the US Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index changes. This event had been insignificant and did not cause increases of volatility since April. However, in August, there were notable moves on all USD pairs.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The rate has four possible moves that it could make. Two of the four are decline scenarios and the other two are possible surges.In the case of a decline, the rate could reach the lower trend line of the channel up pattern near 1.1800. Afterwards, it would test the line's support. In the case of the line not holding, the rate could reach for the monthly S1 pivot point at 1.1767.
On the other hand, the trend line could hold and either keep the rate trading sideways or cause a surge.
In the case of a surge, the pair would test the resistance levels located from 1.1862 to 1.1877. Namely, it would test the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly and monthly simple pivot points.
If the resistance would not hold and keep the rate down, the pair could aim at the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.1974.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, if the rate continued to decline, it could look for support in the combination of the monthly S1 at 1.1767 and the lower trend line of a large scale channel up pattern.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 59% of all EUR/USD open position volume was in short positions.
On Friday, the sentiment was 62% short. It is assumed that short term short traders have been taking profits.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were neutral, as 52% of orders were to buy.