The near term forecasts were based upon what would happen at the simple moving averages.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Euro traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 2 pips or 0.01%.Afterwards, the release caused significant drop of the EUR/USD currency pair. The pair lost 0.97%.
According to the official release, the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors discussed the need to ease monetary policy to support the US economy.
Hourly Chart
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Friday, watch out for the German PMI data at 07:30 GMT, as the EUR/USD rate could move more than ten pips.
Next week, as the last week of the month, the following week is expected to be a quiet one. However, there are events that should be watched in the case a sharp moves occurs.
On Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT traders should watch the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data. The event is capable of causing volatility increases above average level.
On Thursday, the US Preliminary GDP and the US Unemployment claims are set to be published. Due to these events usually not being released at the same time, the past reactions need to be combined. Namely, in the case of the same direction surprise the volatility pips need to be added one to another. On the other hand, different results shown by each data set could cancel one another out.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On Friday morning, the rate was testing the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.If the SMAs, fail to keep the rate down, the pair would first test the resistance of the 1.1900 level. The 1.1900 level is strengthened by the weekly R1 simple pivot point. In the case of the 1.1900 failing to keep the rate down, the EUR/USD would have no resistance as high as 1.1960.
On the other hand, if the SMAs hold and cause a decline, the rate would first reach for the 200-hour SMA at 1.1838 and afterwards the 1.1800 level, which caused the most recent surge.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair remains in a larger channel up pattern, which has guided the pair since the middle of April.
Take into account that a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level could provide resistance at the 1.2031 level.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
On Thursday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 67% of all EUR/USD open position volume was in short positions.
On Friday morning, the sentiment decreased to 66% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were set to sell in 52% of all cases.
Previously, the orders were 52% to buy.