The EUR/USD started the week by trading between the support of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs near 1.0810 and the resistance of the 200-hour SMA near 1.0830.
In general, it was observed that the pair could break out in either direction up or down.
US Flash Manufacturing PMI
The Euro appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Flash Manufacturing PMI survey results release on Friday at 14:45 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 13 pips or 0.12% after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.0845 level against the Greenback after the release.
Markit released the US Flash Manufacturing PMI survey results, which came out worse-than-expected of 50.8 compared with the forecast of 51.5.
According to the official release: "New orders received by private sector firms fell for the first time since data collection began in October 2009. The fractional decline in new business stemmed from weak client demand across the service sector and the slowest rise in manufacturing new order volumes for nine months. Private sector companies continued to struggle to attract foreign client demand as new export orders fell for the second month running."
Economic Calendar Analysis
During the week there are no notable events that might impact the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. However, some economic calendars have US and EU events listed as high impact.
On Thursday, at 15:30 GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are set to be published. This event has caused moves from 3.0 to 15.1 pips since August.
Moreover, the 15.1 pip move was an anomaly caused by the simultaneous release of other data together with the Durable Goods orders. Without it, the range is from 3.0 to 5.7 pips.
At the same time, the US Preliminary GDP is scheduled to be published. This is the other data set that together with the Durable Goods orders caused a 15.1 pip move. Without the other data, the GDP has caused moves from 6.1 to 11.4 pips.
In general, for there to be a move above ten pips all of the three data numbers should be different from the forecasts in the same way. Either better or worse than expected, all should surprise in the same manner. Such situation is highly unlikely.
Another release on the calendars is the Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate. It has caused moves from 4.7 to 10.6 pips.
It is a minor one due to the fact that components of this number are being released prior to it. Namely, Euro Zone countries release their data on their own before the combined Euro Zone CPI. The markets more or less already know what is set to be revealed and there is no surprise that could cause a market adjustment.
The week's data is available. Click on the link below to see the historical data tables with the reactions to various events.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair skyrocketed to the 1.0860 level. During today's morning, the pair dropped to the support provided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 1.0810.If the given support holds, it is likely that a reversal north could occur in the nearest future. In this case the exchange rate could target the 1.0860 level.
However, note that the rate would have to surpass the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.0830. If the given resistance holds, the pair could consolidate in the short term.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair is retracing back up after dropping sharply throughout February. This move up is seen as a consolidation of the previous decline.
Daily chart
Since the middle of Wednesday's trading, the open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange has been balanced. 50% of volume was long and 50% was short.
On Monday, the sentiment was 51% short.
Meanwhile, set up pending orders were set to buy, as 53% of orders in the 100-pip range were to buy and 47% were to sell.
On Friday, 58% of orders were to buy and 42% were to sell.