On Monday, the EUR/USD traded at technical support levels that were concentrated at 1.1010. At that level two SMAs and the weekly simple pivot point were located at.
The near term future forecasts were based upon what would happen at this level. In the meantime, take into account that there was a large increase of volatility on Friday. A detailed report on the event is being prepared, as Dukascopy Analytics research all the possible causes of Friday's price action. The final report will be published in the Expert Commentary section and afterwards added to the next Trading Idea publication.Economic Calendar Analysis
This week the rate might get impacted by US data.
On Monday, at 15:00 GMT the ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be published. Take into account that the time was changed. It was previously scheduled for 14:00 GMT. This event has caused moves from 12.7 to 37.2 pips since July 2019.
On Wednesday, there are two US events that the media will pay attention to. The ADP Non-farm Employment Change at 13:15 GMT and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT.
The ADP Employment Change can be ignored. It has created reactions on the EUR/USD below ten pips. In general, a move below ten pips on a five minute time frame is seen as normal.
In the meantime, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI since June 2019 has caused moves from 9.7 to 36.5 pips.
On Friday, the US Employment data sets will be published at 13:30 GMT. The event consists of three numbers – Average Hourly Earnings, Non-farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Since July, moves from 14.5 to 41.4 pips have been caused by the release.
Meanwhile, the week's scheduled event historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to read the article.
Read More: 02.12-06.12 Event Historical Reactions
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair skyrocketed to the 1.1025 level. During today's morning, the pair was testing the support formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP at 1.1012.If the given support holds, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market. Note that the exchange rate would have to surpass the resistance formed by the 200-hour SMA at 1.1030.
However, if the given support level holds, it is likely that the Euro could depreciate against the US Dollar in the nearest future. In this case the rate could gain support of the weekly S1 at 1.0991.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the ascending channel pattern's lower trend line has held the rate up.
In the meantime, on the chart the rate faces the resistance of the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages. They are located, respectively, at 1.1040 and 1.1076.
In the future, the mentioned trend line should push the rate into the resistance of the SMAs. It should result in a squeeze of the rate that should be followed by either a break out up to the 1.1150 level or a fall as low as 1.0800.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders short the EUR/USD
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 64% of open EUR/USD position volume was in short positions. The sentiment was 65% short on Friday.
Meanwhile, pending trade orders were bullish, as 58% of orders in the 100-pip range were to buy and 42% were to sell.
Previously, the orders were 71% to buy.