GBP/USD trades below resistance levels

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

uring Friday's London morning trading hours, the GBP/USD was approaching the previously touched low level of 1.2160.

In general, the rate was expected to be pushed down by simple moving averages through the 1.2160 level's support.

Pound depreciates on possible Parliament suspension



On Wednesday morning, August 28, the British Pound depreciated 129 pips or 1.05% against the US Dollar.

The reason for the drop is a possibility that the UK Queen Elizabeth could be asked to extend the UK Parliament break until October 14.

Previously, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK would leave the European Union with or without a deal on October 31. Thus, a possible Parliament suspension might be a part of the UK Government campaign to get Brexit done.

Economic Calendar

This week's data releases have ended. See the reports in the Fundamental Analysis section.

Next week, there are a couple of US data releases on the economic calendars that are shown as high impact.

On Tuesday, at 14:00 GMT the US ISM Manufacturing PMI might impact the GBP/USD rate. Since April the announcement has caused moves from 13.2 to 25.4 base points.

On Thursday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be published at 12:15 GMT. Although, note that this is one of the releases that should not have a high impact mark and be discussed by financial media, as it has lost its power to impact the financial markets.

Due to that reason, since October 2018 our analysts ignored this data release. Recently, due to the possibility that it might have regained its strength, data was checked. Five minutes after the data release there were moves from 12.9 to 14.8 pips on GBP/USD chart. A fifteen pip range is normal volatility for the GBP/USD.

On Friday, US employment data will be published. The event will have three numbers being revealed – the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

Due to each of the numbers impacting the rate differently by pushing the value of the USD up or down and with a different strength, the event has a wide range. Namely, since April the GBP/USD has moved from 14.8 to 34.1 pips due to the US labour data.

GBP/USD short-term review

On Friday, the GBP/USD traded near 1.2180 level.

The currency exchange rate was expected to decline down to the 1.2142 level, as it was the closest technical support level.

In the meantime, the rate faced the technical resistance of the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and a weekly pivot point at 1.2220.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate has bounced off the resistance of a dominant channel down pattern.

Moreover, the rate is being forced into a decline by the resistance of a weekly pivot point at 1.2220.

If the rate trades consistent with the pattern, it is set to decline in the borders of the pattern until the end of September.

Daily chart


Traders remain long on GBP/USD



On Thursday morning, SWFX sentiment was 61% long. Despite the drop, traders have remained long on GBP/USD.

On Friday, 59% of open GBP/USD position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bullish, as 55% of orders were set to buy and 45% were to sell.

The orders previously were 63% to buy.

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