GBP/USD might trade sideways

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

During Monday morning, the GBP/USD exchange rate was testing the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP in the 1.2469/1.2505 range.

Latest Fundamental Event Report

The British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Thursday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 12 pips or 0.10% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2480 level against the Greenback.

The Office for National Statistics released the UK Retail Sales data, which came out better-than-expected of 1.0% compared with the forecast of negative 0.3%.

According to the official release: "In the three months to June 2019, the quantity bought increased by 0.7%, with growth across all sectors except food stores and department stores; however, this was a slowdown from the stronger growth of 1.6% in the three months to May 2019. Online sales as a proportion of all retailing fell to 18.9% in June 2019, from the 19.3% reported in May 2019."


Data from US could cause movements



On the Thursday, the US Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released at 12:30 GMT. Last time, this release caused an eight-pip move in the GBP/USD rate.

On Friday, the US Advance GDP data will be released at 12:30 GMT. The previous data release caused a 22-pip move. 

GBP/USD short-term review

At the end of the previous trading week, the GBP/USD exchange rate reversed north from the resistance level formed by the monthly S1 at 1.2545.

During Monday's morning, the rate was testing the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP in the 1.2469/1.2504 range.

If the given support does not hold, it is expected, that the currency pair could continue to decline. A possible downside target is the 1.2440 level.

Otherwise, it is likely, that the pair could reverse north in the nearest future and re-test the given resistance.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the dominant descending channel pattern's lower trend line caused the recent surge by providing support. The trend line was also strengthened by the weekly and monthly second support levels.

Meanwhile, note that the daily simple moving averages are far above the currency pair, indicating that the pair is oversold.

Daily chart


Traders remain long


On Monday, 75% of open GBP/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were once more bullish, as 57% of orders were set to buy.

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