GBP/USD reaches support levels

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The GBP/USD fell down to the 1.2920 level by the middle of Tuesday's trading session.

In general, the pair faced a cluster of support from 1.2920 to 1.2940. If this cluster fails, a decline down to 1.2870 should occur.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK GDP data release on Friday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 17 pips or 0.13% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.3014 level against the Greenback.

Office for National Statistics released the UK GDP data, which came out worse-than-expected of negative 0.1% compared with forecast 0.0%. Note, that the UK Manufacturing Production data was released at the same time.

Despite the monthly GDP data release, which came out worse-than-expected, the UK economy is robust, as the Manufacturing Production jumped to 0.9%, and the quarterly GDP increased to 0.5%.




US data could impact GBP/USD

During this week there will be a couple of macroeconomic events, which are notable enough to impact currency exchange rates.

On Wednesday, Aussie traders have to watch out for the Australian Wage Price Index publication at 01:30 GMT. It is the Australian equivalent of the UK Average Earnings Index.

During the same day, at 06:00 GMT and at 09:00 GMT GDP data will be published in the European Union. Namely, at 06:00 GMT watch the German Preliminary GDP release and at 09:00 GMT the flash EU GDP will be out.

These data sets are not the ones that usually cause big moves. However, during the recent months we have seen changes in that. The EU data has resumed to cause moves on the EUR pairs.

Also on Wednesday, the Canadian CPI and US Retail Sales will be published at 12:30 GMT. The CPI caused moves of 23 to 61 pips since December on USD/CAD. Meanwhile, the US retail sales have created moves from 12 to 40 base points on EUR/USD.

Early on Thursday, at 01:30 GMT the official Australian employment change will be published. The data is expected to cause a minor impact. This event is the last notable of the week.

Watch this week's economic calendar analysis and leave comments with questions about the specifics.

GBP/USD short-term review

On Monday, the GBP/USD exchange rate dropped to the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel at 1.2940. During today's morning, the rate was testing the lower channel line.

From a theoretical perspective, a reversal north should occur in the nearest future, and the currency pair could rise to the psychological level at the 1.2980 mark.

If the given channel does not hold, it is likely, that a breakout south could occur in the short run. However, the pair has to surpass the Fibonacci 23.90% retracement at 1.2938 and the weekly S1 1.2923.

Meanwhile, take into account that to properly see the larger pattern, one needs to zoom out the chart and load previous price information that in turn would set properly the ascending pattern's drawing reference points.

Hourly Chart


The daily candle chart of GBP/USD has been updated. The high level of May 1 was used as a reference point to draw a descending channel pattern.

Meanwhile, the daily chart reveals that the 200-day simple moving average was located at 1.2960. It was set to provide resistance to the currency exchange rate.

Daily chart

Neutral sentiment on Swiss Foreign Exchange

Since Friday morning, 52% of total open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

On Tuesday, this proportion changed to 51% of traders being long.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bullish, as 564% of orders were set to buy.

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