On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD exchange rate was testing the lower boundary of the falling wedge pattern located circa 1.2880.
If the given pattern does not hold, it is expected that the rate decline to the monthly S1 at 1.2872.
The British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 16 pips or 0.13% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.3010 level against the US Dollar.
Office for National Statistics released the UK Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 1.1% compared with forecast –0.3%.
According to analysts, the unexpected increase in the UK retail sales was driven by Brexit uncertainty. It is likely, that consumers are undisturbed by the UK departure from the EU bloc. Consumers have supported the UK economic growth since the referendum.
Last week of the month
During this week, there will be a couple of macroeconomic events to watch, avoid or trade.
On Thursday, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be published at 12:30 GMT. This event can cause a move of up to 20 base points.
The data will end on Friday, as at 12:30 GMT the US Advance GDP will be published. This is the top US data set, which has the largest impact on the USD.
Meanwhile, check out the previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
GBP/USD short-term review
During previous trading session, the GBP/USD exchange rate declined to the weekly S2 at 1.2894. During Thursday's morning, the rate tried to surpass the given support.If the given support holds, the currency pair reverses north. However, it is unlikely, that the pair could rise higher than the 1.2938/1.2964 range due to the resistance cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the Fibo 23.90% and the weekly S1.
If the given support level does not hold, it is expected, that the rate maintains its decline. The nearest support might be the monthly S1 located at the 1.2872 mark.
Hourly Chart
As apparent on the chart, the GBP/USD currency pair is pressured by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs at 1.2970. Thus, it is unlikely, that an increase could occur in the short term.
It is expected, that the pair maintains its slump in the nearest future, pressured by the descending trend line.
A possible downside target might be the psychological level at 1.2800.
Daily chart
Meanwhile, the pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish. 68% of the orders were set to sell.