GBP/USD continues to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

A new low level has been reached by the GBP/USD currency exchange rate. Namely, on Tuesday morning the rate had reached below the low level of 1.3160.

The rate was expected to continue the descent after retracing back up to two technical resistance levels at 1.3205.

Latest Fundamental Event

The Federal Reserve released last Wednesday the US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

"Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve's asset holdings later this year. Such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet," the document said.

US data on Friday will impact the GBP/USD



This week is set to be the first one of the month. Due to that reason it is set to have important data releases occurring.

The notable data releases that Dukascopy Analytics will cover will start on Wednesday. At 13:30 GMT the Canadian Trade Balance will be published and cause a notable move on all CAD pairs.

Moreover, at 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will publish their Overnight Rate, which has on average caused moves around 80 base points on the USD/CAD.

On Thursday, all attention will be on the European Central Bank. The bank will publish its Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45 GMT and host a press conference at 13:30 GMT.

The rate announcement has become insignificant, as the ECB keeps their rate at 0.00%. Instead during the press conference the heads of the bank will reveal information about the ECB's asset buying program.

On Friday, Canada and the US will publish their monthly employment data sets. It has five important data sets impacting the USD/CAD. It is the most complicated one to work with, as each data set impacts the rate differently.

For more information watch the weekly calendar analysis stream on our YouTube channel.

GBP/USD short term review

After reaching below the 1.3160 level the GBP/USD was surging on Tuesday. In general, it was expected to reach for the combined resistance of the weekly PP at 1.3204 and the 55-hour SMA, which was approaching from above.

If these levels hold and push the rate down, the pair will make an attempt to first pass the support of the 200-hour SMA at 1.3175 and then the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3160.

On the other hand, the resistance might fail and the rate could surge up tot eh 100-hour SMA at 1.3245.

Hourly Chart


On the daily chart the recent moves have been consistent with a dominant ascending pattern. The rate is retracing downwards in the borders of it.

If the descent continues at the current angle, the rate might reach down to the 1.3000 mark.

Daily chart

Traders remain short

Traders continue to mostly short the GBP/USD. On the Swiss Foreign Exchange of the total open position volume 66% was short on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the pending orders were set to sell. 53% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to sell the GBP/USD.

In general, traders continue to ride the wave downwards. In addition, it could be seen that traders have removed their buy orders, which were assumed to be take profits and stop losses.

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