英债周线保力加通道收窄,关注突破单边行情

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


英国通胀虽然回落,但仍在10.1%的高位,相比美国已回落至5%, 明显对英伦银行的货币政策到有挑战性。英国的经济增长只有0.1%,若果英伦银行继续采取加息来压低需求端的方法来应对通胀,将促使经济加速跌入负增长。

若果英伦银行不加息的话。英镑恐在息差影响下,快速回落。事实上英伦银行行长贝利在上次的会後声明指出英通脹已見頂。市場認為貝利言語中指向該行無心加息壓通脹。現市場估計英國可能在6月多加一次0.25厘後,息率見頂。 经历了COVID-19的疫情後,各国的财政策激措施已走到宽松的尽头。甚至可能要发债来帮助政府的负债。从英国国债周线图看,保力加通道明显收窄。并有随时爆边的单边行情。若果债券快连回落,会否引发英伦银行再次QE?情况就好像去年Liz Truss当首相的时候

技术分析来看,现时的STOCH正向下产生动力,也代表英债向下突破的机会略大,若果再次下破100,英债有机会下试95只90的支持 BY DUKASCOPY BANK SA

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