© Colin Cieszynski
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Canadian government is still working on it. To point out, we have a Federal election coming in 2015 and the government is certainly interested in reducing the deficit before they go back and address their voters. In my opinion, over the next year, we could see them trying to put all possible effort to eliminate nation`s budget deficit.
Recently Canada's central bank officials kept their benchmark lending rate at 1%; however, there were expectations that they might increase it. On the other hand, as nation's inflation is rather low, they might consider cutting interest rates. What is your opinion on this matter?
The last Bank of Canada meeting was very important, as until then they have been neutral toward rising or leaving the interest rates unchanged. However, at this meeting they have raised their concerns over inflation rate of Canada as it is recently falling too low. Moreover, the risk of deflation started to rise and that is something that the central banks do not want to have either. It was the first time in a while that the Bank of Canada started to consider the possibility of easing if the inflation rate remains low. In my opinion, there is room to cut interest rates if needed as they have raised it previously and Canada has never conducted a Quantitative Easing programme.
In your opinion, what could be the most important political and economic events that could determine Canada's currency performance?
The main drivers for the Canadian Dollar remain the situation of the Bank of Canada and their stance on monetary policy. Relative to other countries they have leaned towards more hawkish stance; however, they have gone to neutral. We have seen a bit of a weakness in the Canadian Dollar, as previously there was a potential for the interest rate increase. Moreover, Canada is a major oil exporter; therefore, the loonie also remains somewhat sensitive to the price of oil and to what happens in the U.S. economy, as we cannot completely escape from the impact coming from the U.S.
What are your short and long-term forecasts for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD?
We saw that the Canadian Dollar has been rallying recently; it appreciated from about 1.0260 to 1.0460. Nevertheless, it is still well short of its highs at 1.0560 that it hit at the end of August to early September and its peak, just above 1.06, that it reached back in June. We have a bit of a trend of lower highs in the USD/CAD as it is slowly rebounding after weakening against the U.S. Dollar through the first half of the year. Canada's currency has rather stabilized over the last three to four months; nevertheless, it could start to fall again if the Fed continues to extend the QE for longer than people have been expecting. Originally, others considered the Fed could start tapering in September; afterwards, people thought that it would happen in March or April. The Canadian Dollar has a potential to strengthen even further if tapering takes longer than experts have forecasted and that could bring USD/CAD slightly closer towards parity.
The loonie had been weakening against the Euro for the last year, but this has started to change. It had another spike up more recently on the strength of the Euro versus other currencies but this has reversed course with the Euro collapse late in the week. We have seen that Canadian Dollar has benefited in the past from the weakness in the Euro and the European financial crises. There could be a correction back to 1.44 and its support level is around 1.4131. Nevertheless, the basic uptrend of lower highs has been in place for a year. This pair along with other Euro pairs could be active in the near term as traders try to determine if the ECB is prepared to cut interest rates again. Further easing could weigh on EUR but the single currency could rebound if a cut is not forthcoming.